Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 27.629147 29.475573 31.461185 33.769317 36.396897 39.317593 42.841952
2025-11-23 25.150483 27.690532 30.586725 34.184710 38.611308 43.989847 51.207117
2025-11-30 23.505640 26.368235 29.750167 34.132665 39.811884 47.163837 57.868491
2025-12-07 22.109299 25.144541 28.826483 33.754850 40.411337 49.496481 63.719902
2025-12-14 20.506956 23.517090 27.228171 32.297303 39.328576 49.269273 65.642061
2025-12-21 19.781189 22.915544 26.857297 32.379741 40.305273 52.044253 72.787968
2025-12-28 19.269827 22.539154 26.729849 32.748783 41.688321 55.589250 82.143475
2026-01-04 18.419892 21.669546 25.883225 32.028041 41.352761 56.315612 86.453400
2026-01-11 18.133285 21.517204 25.981750 32.646002 43.104621 60.760543 99.688009
2026-01-18 17.764076 21.229757 25.868644 32.931192 44.342750 64.507736 113.017663
2026-01-25 17.148095 20.578347 25.208591 32.340580 44.067965 65.384442 119.671888
2026-02-01 16.641181 20.053752 24.699744 31.942186 44.070542 66.789076 128.447891
2026-02-08 15.909078 19.264516 23.878409 31.172641 43.656472 67.917325 139.412972
2026-02-15 15.559688 18.998417 23.808773 31.603360 45.474810 74.350294 175.159922
2026-02-22 15.118553 18.572836 23.466893 31.545913 46.365086 78.984298 212.119850
2026-03-01 14.646968 18.079243 22.990869 31.219390 46.687313 82.374231 251.311222
2026-03-08 13.974164 17.269557 21.997271 29.947645 44.987878 80.123139 253.643878
2026-03-15 13.681835 16.995945 21.802734 30.019766 46.004878 85.509779 326.482012
2026-03-22 13.470101 16.828299 21.758218 30.342130 47.584693 93.180697 473.084377
2026-03-29 13.054613 16.345373 21.199173 29.712185 47.034032 94.150688 553.476739
2026-04-05 12.926261 16.280396 21.290626 30.252386 49.145942 104.874823 1101.452550
2026-04-12 12.742332 16.124164 21.227108 30.501336 50.638950 114.432678 3227.089101
2026-04-19 12.411264 15.735263 20.771729 29.985527 50.240862 116.436364 8589.003304